Folding screen: a booster for the mobile phone market or a longevity fruit? | rajaslot id, gelora188, mesin slot id mobile slots pragmatic

The 2019 MWC is extraordinary. In NBA terms, this is a "draft year." This year’s high-ranking rookies include “5G”, “Consumer IoT”, “Folding Screen”, etc. These rookies may change the development direction of the Internet industry in the next few years. As far as the smartphone industry is concerned, "folding screen" may be to mobile phones what Curry is to basketball. Curry redefined basketball with three-pointers, while "folding screen" redefined mobile phones with three-dimensionality.

Obviously, the "full screen" of the smartphone industry in 2018 is gone, and what follows is the "folding screen" boom. The popularity of “folding screens” is by no means an accidental event, but an inevitable event when the development of smartphones reaches a bottleneck period.

The "folding screen" continues to heat up, driven by internal and external factors

"Folding screen" is not a new thing this year. The ZTE Axon folding screen mobile phone has appeared as early as 2015, but it is two independent LCD screens connected together, not a complete screen. But this does not affect the fact that we can use this to get a glimpse of the value of the folding screen phone itself.

Smartphones have been in development for more than ten years. So far, neither full-screen nor wireless charging has ignited user enthusiasm. The reason is simply that users are tired of the aesthetics of smartphones. The emergence of folding screen mobile phones can be said to have led smartphones from the two-dimensional world to the three-dimensional world, realizing the dimensionality of smartphones. As shown in "Interstellar", people are always yearning for the unknown higher dimensions, which are always full of mystery and freshness.

The public, especially young people, have always been deeply fascinated by foldable screen phones that are full of science fiction, cool and fashionable. Secondly, based on mature AR/VR technology, some games and applications with stereoscopic images and three-dimensional space design such as AR/VR urgently need to adapt to its carrier, and folding screen mobile phones are undoubtedly the best candidates. Once again, the regret left over from the "full screen" era - the front camera with nowhere to place it, can be effectively solved by folding.

Finally, the biggest advantage of foldable screen phones is that they achieve the dual combination of "large screen + portability". Large screens are the aesthetic trend of the public. You can listen to voices without reading text. You can watch videos without listening to voices. You can watch on a large screen without straining your eyes with a small screen. This is just like a combination of iPad + mobile phone, just like "a woman who combines beauty and talent" is sought after by the world.

"Folding screen&rd"The popularity is not just due to its own advantages. After all, ZTE Axon, which appeared in 2015, is still unknown today. The bigger reason may be that the smartphone industry has touched its ceiling." Data shows that global smartphone shipments showed a sharp decline in 2018, and the growth of emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia was unable to offset the decline of the overall market. Therefore, from the perspective of the smartphone industry, the incremental market for traditional smartphones has turned into a stock market, which has clearly reached the ceiling of the industry. Smartphones urgently need to develop new categories to tap market segments and open up new blue oceans.

From the perspective of competition between the two major smartphone systems, Apple is the pioneer of straight touch screen mobile phones, harvesting most of the profits of the smartphone industry, and has established a brand image from the beginning of smartphones, raising its brand premium. Moreover, through iOS, Apple has allowed multilateral industry chain groups to basically form an ecosystem community of interests that operates stably, coexists and prospers. This ecosystem is now very mature.

With Apple's ecological advantages difficult to break, Android system manufacturers are pushing the war to the next half, rushing to deploy patented technologies, building industry barriers, and seizing the folding screen mobile phone market may become the only way out. Let's look at it, whether it is Samsung's Galaxy Fold, Huawei's Mate X, or Xiaomi and OPPO's folding screen mobile phones, they are all Android systems. Although they fight each other passionately, Apple has always been a "super" existence.

In addition, there is another thing that must be mentioned: 5G is coming, and the 5G fever is bound to drive terminal upgrades. The “folding screen” has unique advantages in adaptability to 5G, like a match made in heaven. In this year's MWC arena, in addition to major mobile phone equipment manufacturers showing off "folding screens", players from major 5G operators are also showing off the most advanced technologies and latest research results, showing their exploration, trial, application and analysis of 5G.

Although the most mature 5G technology at present is MBB, although it cannot fully spawn industries for the industrial Internet and industry digitization with such technological maturity, it is more than enough to realize its application scenarios and business models for individual customers using mobile phones as terminals. At this level, 5G and folding screens can be described as a pair of "good brothers" who are in the same boat.

To sum up, there is no reason why the “folding screen” jointly promoted by the smartphone industry, the Android system ecosystem, and 5G operators is not popular.

Violating Occam’s razor and “atavism”, “folding screens” may become “technological futures”

However, fire is fire, and problems are problems. The "folding screen" fire mentioned above may be just an illusion, because all of this is based on the fact that the "folding screen" is perfect and flawless. In fact, the current "folding screen" is not as good as what major manufacturers described at MWC. "Folding screen" is to a certain extent a "technological future" that mobile phone manufacturers have to launch under the general development trend of the industry.

UnknowinglyDuring this period, the contradiction between the development requirements of the smartphone industry and the backwardness of “folding screen” technology has become increasingly prominent. The above has explained that "folding screen" is the future development direction of the mobile phone industry in all aspects, but the author believes that "future development direction" does not mean that the conditions for "folding screen" to be launched on the market on a large scale are now met. Overall, it seems that it is still in the model and sample stage, or even just a "technology future", and does not have the conditions to be delivered to the market.

The immature hardware technology of folding screen mobile phones is its flaw, which companies cannot overcome in a short period of time. Large manufacturers such as Samsung and Huawei dare to launch folding screen mobile phones, which to a certain extent shows that the maturity of folding screen products has been relatively complete. However, if we look into its specific parameters in detail, the usability of foldable screen phones may not be as good as existing smartphones.

This is the crux of the folding screen phone - it looks gorgeous on the outside, but it's rough on the inside.

First, the yield rate of flexible screens is low. In the development process from traditional mobile phones to modern foldable screen mobile phones, the cost of spare parts has increased significantly because the screen yield rate has not been improved. What's more, the yield rate of flexible AMOLED is still lower than that of rigid AMOLED. Previously, LG panels reported a green screen problem on the Huawei Mate series. According to the current domestic technology level, the yield rate of flexible AMOLED may be less than half, and the yield rate of foldable screens may be around 20%. In addition, in order to achieve a flexible effect, the "folding screen" replaces the previous glass material cover with a CPI cover, a resin material that is very fragile and easy to wear, which will cause the mobile phone display to be more easily scratched than in the past.

Second, the hinge technology is not perfect. In October 2018, Royole, a domestic flexible electronics technology manufacturer, was the first to release the flexible screen product FlexPai. This device has a large 7.8-inch screen when unfolded, but it cannot be fully fitted after folding, and the hinge of the unit affects portability. In addition, the situation similar to the "cable repair" of flip phones in the past may reappear on folding screen phones, and the reliability of the bending area is a difficulty.

These two points will also directly lead to the phenomenon of "the screen bending machine is difficult to bend", because it is not only the screen that needs to be "bent", but also flexible circuit boards, flexible chips, flexible batteries, etc. Therefore, these supporting materials and technologies currently need further improvement.

In addition, there are other deficiencies that affect user experience and market acceptance. Occam's razor requires simplicity and effectiveness. However, the current folding screen mobile phone industry has been pursuing issues such as battery life, thickness, and heat dissipation for ten years, "turning back to before liberation". This not only contradicts Occam's razor, but also challenges user acceptance.

The problem of poor battery life of foldable screen mobile phones has become more prominent after the screen becomes larger, which pales in comparison with the large battery capacity of the IQOO recently released by VIVO. Due to imperfect hinge technology, different folding methods and gaps in the middle of the folding screen will have a certain impact on the thickness. According to recent press conference data from Samsung and Huawei, the folding thickness of Samsung Galaxy Fold is 17mm and Huawei's 11mm, which is much higher than the thickness of current candy bar smartphones. There is also the problem of heat dissipation of mobile phones. This problem is accompanied by Samsung and Huawei smallMi and other companies have been dealing with this problem for many years, and it has just been solved in recent years. If it reappears, it will probably disappoint users.

This requires that folding screen mobile phones need to control the thickness of the mobile phone and require more high-quality material suppliers, but this also brings new problems. For domestic machines, the cover material is currently mainly monopolized by foreign manufacturers such as Sumitomo and SK Hynix, and the source of cover material is a problem.

All in all, folding screen mobile phones have many hardware and technical problems and are far from being ready for the market. For example, the "breakage insurance" launched by Suning some time ago not only wants to increase the sales of folding screen mobile phones, but also has deep concerns about the "folding screen" technology. What you need to know is that this is completely different from the market environment when candy bar smartphones emerged. Straight-panel smartphones were born in the era of feature phones (now known as "old people's phones"). Smartphones with poor hardware technology can use their obvious advantages such as large screens, touch screens, and high pixels to dominate the feature phone market.

In addition to hardware technical obstacles, foldable screen mobile phones also have downstream software adaptation issues. Foldable screen mobile phones have opened up a new way of human-computer interaction. As mentioned above, they have achieved a leap from two dimensions to three dimensions and changed the way traditional smartphones are played. In this case, developers and designers need to make special adaptations for this. When a software ecosystem can be established is a question, and it may even fall into a "vicious cycle" of "no supporting settings - consumers are unwilling to buy - developers are unwilling to build supporting settings".

The folding screen mobile phone in 2019 is just a window-dressing toy for a few people. A set of data is listed below. Samsung Galaxy Fold is scheduled to be launched in April, priced starting at US$1,980, equivalent to about 13,288 yuan in human life coins; Huawei Mate

Data shows that the cheapest folding phone costs nearly 9,000 yuan, and the expensive one costs nearly 20,000 yuan, which is almost out of consideration for ordinary consumers. As far as the author is concerned, the price I accept when buying a mobile phone is no more than 4,000 yuan, because 4,000 yuan can buy a domestic candy bar smartphone with good enough performance.

Currently, foldable screen mobile phone manufacturers are limited by product cost constraints and cannot lower prices. Moreover, except for the cheapest FlexPai folding screen mobile phone, which has been released, other manufacturers' products are still in the pre-sale stage or sample stage.

OPPO Vice President Shen Yiren, an insider, said on Weibo: At this stage, apart from the larger screen, folding screen mobile phones have not brought much improvement to the user experience. There is no advantage, but many mobile phone manufacturers are rushing to develop and promote "folding screens". The most likely possibility is that "folding screens" are just a "muscle flexing competition" for mobile phone manufacturers in the gradually weakening mobile phone market. This gives them a shot in the arm and becomes a "straw to continue their lives" in the 5G era when the economy is in recession.

Where is the "folding screen" heading?

Since "folding screen&rd"quo;There are countless problems at this stage, so is there no way out for the "folding screen"?

From a subjective perspective. Mr. Hu Shi once said, "Bold assumptions, careful verification." Jules Verne, the famous French science fiction novelist who was world-famous for his novels such as "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea" at the end of the 19th century, once wrote science fiction novels. As of today, most of the science fiction novels have been realized. Events show that mankind's bold conjectures, "folding screens" appearing in science fiction movies and novels, and even holographic projection mobile phone screens will be the development trend of the mobile phone industry.

From an objective logical analysis point of view. Porter's five forces model shows that there are five forces that collectively affect the attractiveness of the industry and the competitive strategies of existing companies, namely the competitiveness of existing competitors in the same industry, the ability of potential competitors to enter, the substitution ability of substitutes, the bargaining power of suppliers, and the bargaining power of buyers. "Folding screens" have shown strong advantages in terms of their ability to replace substitutes. What folding screens need to do now is to reduce production costs in order to reduce prices and improve product quality. In this regard, mobile phone manufacturers should not rush for quick results, as they may be able to achieve unexpected gains naturally.

*It is not advisable to rush for success, seek a qualitative breakthrough of singularity in a down-to-earth manner

Kurzweil, the founder of Singularity University, once said: "The singularity refers to the slow latent development of a technology before it matures. Once the technology level and the market environment mature, the development speed will become an exponential growth and upward curve, and this turning point is the singularity moment."

At present, "folding screens" have just started. They are now in the slow latent development period of immature technology in the singularity curve, and it is inevitable to encounter technical problems. For example, when it comes to the hardness of flexible screens, companies represented by Huake Chuangzhi have developed technology to enhance the hardness of CPI covers. The hardness of Huake Chuangzhi's CPI cover has reached 5 H, and when it reaches 7 H, the problem of easy scratches on the display screen can be solved.

From 5 to 7, the author thought it might be a month, it might be half a year, or it might be a year. Once a breakthrough of 7 is achieved, it will mean the perfect solution to the hardness problem of "folding screens" and the possibility of large-scale market introduction will be greatly improved. In addition, both Samsung and Huawei use nano-silver wire touch technology with better bending resistance in the bending area to replace the previous metal grid touch technology, which improves the reliability of the bending area to a certain extent.

* Grasp the group psychology and the "folding screen" large-scale market is not a dream

Jobs said: Consumers themselves don’t know what they want. In fact, the creation of the "folding screen" is based on accurate product user analysis and is not a work behind closed doors.

When you have a mature folding screen mobile phone, the "True Fragrance Law" will definitely shine. Gustave Le Pen mentioned in "The Crowd" that "when an individual is an isolated individual, he has his own distinctive individual characteristics, but when this person integrates into the group, all his individuality will be submerged by the group, and his thoughts will immediately be overwhelmed by the group."replaced by thoughts. And when a group exists, it will have characteristics such as emotionality, no objections, and low IQ. ”

In terms of mobile phone products, consumers’ demand is a better visual experience, that is, large screen and high image quality. Nowadays, the mobile phone industry has basically achieved a full screen, and the mobile phone screen ratio exceeds 90%. If you want to further improve the visual experience, folding screens are the only solution. This is actually what the public wants, and no one will refuse a better experience.

After the "folding screen" is scaled up, the supporting software settings do not require much cooperation from mobile phone manufacturers, and the improvement of the application ecosystem is very simple. Technically speaking, adapting to two screens is actually the same as adapting to rotation. Both require improving the width and height of the system first. Even if the process is a little cumbersome, it will not be more troublesome than the current "notch screen". The "disgusting cycle" of the application software ecosystem may turn into a "virtuous cycle" at any time, and it will get bigger and bigger.

The author believes that the recently popular "folding screen" should be viewed dialectically. Although "folding screen" is inevitably suspected of "flexing muscles" for manufacturers, it is also preparing for the future 5G era.

[Source: Blue Whale TMT Network Author: Liu Zhigang]