Cool live broadcast, will 2019 be good? | luna play88 slot, pharaohs fortune bonus

The author once wrote in "Why do people who play live broadcast have less future than those who play short videos?" "It is predicted in the article that the rise of short videos will cause the live broadcast trend to be hit hard.

A rough summary is: the users of live broadcasts and short videos roughly overlap, but live broadcasts have obvious limitations in usage scenarios and content gameplay. The content of short videos is more valuable and is more likely to cause secondary dissemination. The edited short videos have better content rigor and greater business operation space, which will bring higher user stickiness and competitiveness threshold. Therefore, short videos may have a huge impact on live broadcasts. The integration of short videos and live broadcasts can break through the growth ceiling.

Judging from the current development trajectory of the live broadcast industry, the author’s judgment at the time has been basically verified. In 2017, the trend of live broadcasting has been going downwards. Earlier data showed that nearly a hundred live broadcasting platforms disappeared throughout 2017, and in 2018, the entire live broadcasting industry has gone cold.

According to the "China Online Live Broadcasting Industry Research Report" released by iiMedia Consulting in 2017, the growth rate of users in the live broadcasting industry in 2017 dropped from 60.6% in 2016 to 28.4%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly.

According to the "Statistical Report on Internet Development", as of June 2018, the number of online live broadcast users reached 425 million, a slight increase of 2.94 million from the end of last year, and the user utilization rate was 53%, down 1.7 percentage points from the end of 2017. The user utilization rates of games, reality shows, and concerts all showed a downward trend.

Why did the live streaming industry decline so quickly?

The most direct reason is obviously that short videos have seized the fragmented time and capital attention of live broadcast users. According to Trustdata's third quarter report, the number of short video users reached 595.11 million in June this year. Among the new mobile Internet users, the incremental proportion of video users is close to 15%. Head platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou have become the focus of the entire video content industry.

The sudden rise in the short video field has caused the capital market to pursue new trends, making it more difficult for live broadcast platforms to raise funds.

Short videos can directly integrate live broadcast modes, such as short video + live broadcast, short video + e-commerce, short video + music, short video + information, short video + social and other innovative mobile apps are constantly emerging. The "short video +" model has accelerated penetration and has also eroded the living space of a single live broadcast platform.

Secondly, the wars and competition between live broadcast platforms are fierce, and the cost investment is too high. In order to compete for the top anchors, the live broadcast platforms spend tens of millions of dollars. Each platform has improved the quality of live broadcast images, launching high-definition, 4K and even 8K image quality. However, data shows that every time the number of people online reaches one million, the live broadcast platform will spend at least 30 million yuan per month on broadband expenses alone.

Bandwidth costs and the sky-high operating expenses of top anchors are expensive expenses for live broadcast platforms. However, the profit model of the entire industry still relies heavily on rewards and payments to obtain income. Those who chose live broadcast in the past to kill boredomUsers now have a better way to spend their time, which is to watch short videos until they can’t stop, which naturally reduces their income from live streaming rewards.

Game live streaming may be the only remaining live streaming field that can still maintain popularity, but the situation is not necessarily optimistic. Although Huya and Inke rushed to list in Hong Kong this year, their pre-IPO valuations were generally underestimated. However, in 2018, the financing amount of the live broadcast industry was less than 1.5 billion US dollars, but 70% went to platforms such as Douyu and Huya. Douyu and Huya received a total of nearly 1 billion US dollars in financing.

This is due to the continued popularity of mobile games such as Chicken King of Glory and the huge user base, which continues to support the relatively stable traffic and user base of game live broadcasts. But even so, the head of game live broadcasting is still not optimistic. Including Panda Live, it has been reported that the capital chain has been broken many times, and both Douyu and National TV have been exposed to "wage arrears".

Some data show that the revenue of game live broadcasts, which have relatively stable revenue from tipping and payment, is not optimistic. In 2018, the actual sales revenue of China's game live broadcast market was 7.44 billion yuan. The overall revenue of the industry is not even as good as the revenue of web games, which has been declining for four consecutive years.

Therefore, last year’s capital newcomers Huya and Inke performed like a “roller coaster” in the secondary market. Inke's current market value is approximately HK$4.35 billion, and its market value at the time of listing was approximately HK$8.586 billion. Its stock price has also dropped from HK$4.32 to around HK$2, and its market value has shrunk significantly.

Huya had a good start in the US stock market, with its stock price once crossing the $50 mark. However, with the release of its second-quarter financial report, Huya's stock price has begun to fall. Huya’s current market value is approximately US$4.139 billion, which is almost half of its market value of tens of billions in June.

To some extent, the development of the live broadcast industry has deviated from the track of capital expectations, or in other words, is lower than the expectations of the capital market.

In 2018, live answering questions continued the last wave of enthusiasm in the live broadcast industry. After that, the live broadcast investment trend disappeared, and the industry's capital chain shortage has not been improved. Many middle and tail live broadcast platforms without sufficient cash flow and lack of blood-forming capabilities have withdrawn. Short videos on the trend have seized the attention and time of live broadcast users, and the crisis in the live broadcast industry has intensified.

Currently, NetEase Mint has completely ceased operations and shut down its servers. Mashed Potato Live has also announced the suspension of live streaming services. The National Live Broadcasting Platform, which was once as famous as Douyu Huya, had no capital inflow except for receiving 500 million yuan in Series A financing in 2016, and it also closed down in 2018. And the live broadcast was merged into Weibo.

Is there still a chance in 2019?

If the direct reason for the rapid decline of live broadcasts is the rapid rise of short videos to seize traffic, the current growth of short videos has also slowed down.

Data from iResearch's mobile user behavior monitoring product mUserTracker shows that since the beginning of 2018, the month-on-month growth rate of the number of independent devices in the short video industry has gradually slowed down, and the user bonus period in the short video industry has begun to fade. In June 2018, the number of monthly independent devices in the short video industry increased by only 3.7% month-on-month.

So we see that Douyin and Kuaishou have also begun to enter the live broadcast track, start long-term live broadcast, broaden their business and open capital channels, and widen the track.

This means that the value of live broadcast still exists and is still an important supplement to short videos. Some people think that such reliance on live broadcast platforms will definitely be further squeezed, but in fact, this will actually draw the attention of capital back to the live broadcast stage.

This means that live broadcasting may be gradually passing the worst ebb. On the other hand, after many live broadcast platforms have withdrawn, the industry is left with only the fighting among the top players. In the future, traffic will be concentrated on the top platforms, and the intensity of competition will slow down. This means that live broadcast platforms still have the possibility of a second spring.

Angel investor Wu Shichun believes that an industry in China can be updated with new technologies every once in a while, and this sentence may also apply to live broadcast platforms.

5G may be a new opportunity for live broadcast platforms. On the one hand, live broadcasting has moved from a thousand-broadcast battle to a head-to-head battle, and will enter a stage of refined operations, with the pace of ultra-high-definition live broadcast content accelerating significantly. After all, the advantages of 5G network's high speed, high capacity and low latency can not only enhance the quality of live broadcasts, but also make the transmission of live broadcasts faster with ten times the peak rate of 4G, millisecond-level transmission delays and hundreds of billions of connection capabilities.

In the first half of 2018, the trend of live broadcast content becoming ultra-high definition was obvious, and the proportion of online live broadcasts with ultra-high definition and above was close to 60%. This means that in the 5G era, users will have a better live broadcast experience, and 5G brings new imagination space to AR and VR live broadcasts. On the other hand, 5G may bring about a reduction in bandwidth costs. These are all good for live streaming.

According to data, the last financing before Inke went public was on September 22, 2016, Huajiao Live was on December 22, 2017, and the latest rounds of financing for Panda Live and Quanmin Live were on May 24, 2017 and September 28, 2016 respectively. The second spring of live broadcasting actually requires the attention of capital.

One thing worth noting is that the boring and hollow trend of live broadcasts that was widely criticized in the past has not changed. Purely selling appearance in front of the screen has been hit by the higher dimension of short videos such as Douyin - there are more beautiful young brothers and sisters, who can not only sell appearance, but also come up with story-telling routines and talents.

Therefore, the key to the decline of live broadcast platforms is that the content level is completelyThere is a lack of novelty and no hits. When live broadcasts have passed through the stage of gimmicks and freshness, only games and show content are left to retain users. A vicious cycle has arisen, because retaining users depends entirely on the personal charm of the head anchor. In the face of various novel and interesting content hits in short videos, live broadcasts pale in comparison.

We rarely see a product that can survive stably for several years without making any changes. Today, whether it is pan-entertainment or show live broadcast, we have actually seen that its own business shortcomings and user aesthetic fatigue have intensified. Although they are seeking vertical content to break limitations, they have not made fundamental changes in gameplay to keep users fresh, and have derived new business models to delay the product life cycle.

From the popularity of the KPL e-sports live broadcast of Honor of Kings, the strong ability to attract traffic from the live broadcast of werewolf killing and live broadcast of catching dolls, and from the ability of the recently popular live broadcast of answering questions to drive the download rate and retention rate, it can be seen that the continuous innovation in gameplay has an obvious driving effect on the live broadcast industry. If you innovate the gameplay of live broadcast, you still have a chance to survive or even fight back.

In fact, live broadcast questions in the past have also brought some inspirations for transformation - how to move many once-popular offline entertainment activities, TV variety shows, etc. to the live broadcast platform to re-create a scene that triggers user pursuit and online traffic, and drives new user dividends. This may be an important rule for the future survival of the live broadcast industry, and it is also the key to whether the live broadcast platform can bring a second spring.

In 2019, the road to live broadcasting will still be difficult, because the competition is no longer about product iteration, but business innovation, capital infusion and resource synergy, and how to fight against the blowout development of short videos to seize dominance in the video consumption field.

It is difficult to tell the story of national live broadcast or social live broadcast as a gimmick to attract ordinary users to live broadcast. How to tell a new story that can survive the fierce battle with short video storage, how to break through the current inherent dependence on the profit path, and break the shortcomings of the current content model and outdated gameplay is a key part of the rebound of live broadcast against the trend.