If self-driving cars want to “save all living beings”, they still have to go through 15 hurdles. | mimpi togel 2d, tangkas com, euro togel penipu

Does the future of driverless cars have anything to do with the history of electric self-balancing vehicles? Electric self-balancing vehicles have also been predicted to revolutionize transportation. Steve Jobs once said that cities would be redesigned around this device; John Doerr said it would be bigger than the Internet. The electric self-balancing scooter was technically successful, but it never had the huge impact on the market that its proponents expected. Instead, it now only occupies a very narrow market.

One can imagine a similar fate for autonomous vehicles (AVs): a technology that works well but is limited to a narrow market environment, like pre-programmed space shuttle routes and slow-moving drones. Some narrow applications, such as interstate highways for long-distance transportation, can be very valuable, but not nearly as much as many people think.

In order to revolutionize self-driving cars, a high level of industrialization must be achieved. As a first step, they must build strong, relatively cheap Uber-like services in cities and suburbs. The industry is banding together to call these services "transportation as a service" or "TaaS" (Transportation as a Service). In the long term, self-driving cars must be powerful enough to be privatized and widespread.

This potential for disruption and the tremendous value that comes with it is inspiring hundreds of companies around the world, including some of the largest and richest, including Alphabet, Apple, General Motors, Ford, Toyota and SoftBank, to invest billions of dollars in autonomous vehicles. This work is ongoing, with some companies and regulators deeming their self-driving cars "good enough" to conduct pilot tests of commercial self-driving car services with real customers on public roads in locations as diverse as Singapore, Phoenix and Guangzhou.

Will self-driving cars eventually be revolutionary? What factors could lead them to go the way of electric hoverboards and ruin the hopes and huge investments of those seeking bigger rewards?

Of course, making self-driving cars themselves good enough is an indisputable prerequisite for future success. This is absolutely necessary, but far from sufficient.
This article turns its attention to the issue of technical feasibility to explore other significant barriers to the industrialization of autonomous vehicles. These barriers can be divided into four categories: scale, trust, market viability, and secondary effects. All of these obstacles must be overcome if driverless cars are to revolutionize transportation.

The first type of obstacle: scaling

Building and implementing self-driving cars is an important first step, and extending them to fleet-based transportation services is an even bigger step. Here are 7 huge barriers to industrialization related to scaling.

1. Mass production.

Hand-crafting or modifying a few thousand cars with self-driving technology is enough for development and testing. Industrialization, on the other hand, requires mass production of thousands of cars. But, as the Tesla example has proven, building cars at scale is more complicated than it seems.

2. Charging basicsfacility.

Nearly all autonomous vehicles are developed based on electric vehicles (EVs). In any market, if electric vehicles are to be implemented on a large scale, a completely new charging infrastructure must be established. This takes time and a lot of money.

3. Map.

The detailed, high-definition (HD) maps that self-driving cars rely on could limit the speed of their development. Although these cars are packed with sensors, cameras and software, they need up-to-date maps to determine where they are and what to do.

4. Traffic flow management and operation.

The industrialization of self-driving cars requires perfect maintenance and efficient operation so that thousands of cars can be widely distributed within the service areas of large cities. This will require more than just cleaning windows and carpets, it will require maintaining sophisticated computers within the cars, and it will require sophisticated predictive analytics for charging, scheduling and load balancing to respond to discerning customer demand. Public safety and business survival depend on it.

5. Customer service and user experience.

Autonomous vehicle transportation services are like mobile hotels, but without hotel staff. Even the shortest trip can get messy, especially if there's no one in the car to supervise. Customer service and user experience will also need to extend to non-customers, as self-driving cars must interact with pedestrians, cyclists, other drivers, emergency personnel, other companies’ self-driving cars, and other actors outside of the car.

6. Security.

Computer security in general is a challenging problem, and the computer networks installed in cars will become attractive targets for hackers. There are also physical safety issues, including dissatisfied riders and bystanders, pranksters, thugs, etc. that can also cause safety problems for passengers and the public.

7. Localization speed.

Waymo and other self-driving cars are trained on Phoenix's well-marked, well-lit, well-laid-out streets where people are relatively obedient to the rules of the road. But can they adapt to less-ruly cobblestone roads with animals passing by, or the roundabouts of Boston, or the crowded, pedestrian-filled urban centers of New York, Paris, and Beijing? Many can be adapted, but not all. That’s why every developer tests in multiple regions to understand local infrastructure, weather, cultural norms, and more. The speed and extent of this localization is another barrier to expansion.

The second type of obstacle: whether trust can be earned

It's not enough that developers and manufacturers believe their cars are good enough for widespread use; they have to convince others. To do this, they must overcome three major obstacles.

8. Validity verification.

So far, the development process has been fairly opaque to developers. They rarely disclose details of their requirements, specifications, designs, or testing. There needs to be an independent, systematic process to verify and substantiate the developer'sassertions of their validity. Many people may demand this, including policymakers, regulators, insurers, investors, the public and, of course, customers. The best developers should embrace this - it will reduce liability and differentiate them from laggards and low-quality imitators.

9. Standardization and management.

Industry standards and government regulations cover almost every aspect of automobiles. The industrialization of driverless cars also requires a large degree of participation from these two companies. In particular, standards that are enforced by government regulations ensure reliability, compatibility, interoperability and economies of scale. They also increase public safety and reduce provider liability.

10.Public acceptance.

Most new products work by attracting early adopters. Experience and resources from initial success help developers "cross the chasm" into mainstream success. The industrialization of self-driving cars will depend on earlier and wider public acceptance. Self-driving cars impact not only early customers, but also non-customers who are on and near the road. Industrialization is unlikely to be allowed without widespread acceptance, including among those who cannot ride in self-driving cars.

The third type of obstacle: market feasibility

The next three hurdles are about whether the self-driving car business model will work in the short and long term, including defeating competitors and other adversaries.

11. Business feasibility.

Analyses of business models for self-driving transportation services are often optimistic about the possibility of providing the service at a much lower cost than human-driven services or personal cars. However, current cost-per-mile estimates fall far short of long-term goals. Most participants also underestimated the costs of scaling. Whether the optimistic market plan survives in market practice remains to be seen.

12. Stakeholder resistance.

As the old saying goes, one person's savings is another person's lost income. Industrializing self-driving cars will require overcoming resistance from a host of potential losers, including regulators, car dealers, insurance companies, personal injury lawyers, oil companies, truck drivers and transportation unions, which won't be easy.

13. Privatization.

Autonomous transportation services are just one signpost on the road to transformation in the private owner market. If self-driving cars are to revolutionize transportation, they will have to appeal to consumers who have long preferred owning their own cars, since privately owned cars make up the vast majority of all cars and contribute the majority of miles on the road.

The fourth type of obstacle: secondary effects

The successful industrialization of self-driving cars will be praised by many, but, as has always been the case, big technological changes can have huge negative impacts. Some possible negative consequences are already foreseeable and arouse concern. Unless successfully foreseen and improved, they will become significant obstacles to industrialization. The following two consequences are already worrying and must be addressed as part of the industrialization process.

14. Traffic jam.

Faster, cheaper and better transportation will lead to greater economic opportunities and a higher quality of life, especially for those who cannot afford it, such as the poor, disabled and elderly. However, it can also cause traffic congestion and increase the number of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled on the road. This is already happening with ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft. For example, traffic congestion in San Francisco's densest areas rose 73 percent between 2010 and 2016, according to a recent study by the San Francisco County Transportation Authority. Passenger car services collectively account for more than half of daily vehicle delays.

15. Unemployment problem.

Some argue that the history of technology, including transportation technology, shows that new services will create more jobs, not fewer. However, few believe that new job opportunities are available for those who have lost their old jobs. No one can get around the fact that every self-driving Uber means one fewer human driver — even as other jobs are created for engineers, maintenance workers, dispatchers, customer service representatives, and more. The same principle applies to self-driving shuttles, buses, trucks, etc. Early self-driving service providers will pay close attention to this issue. It will have to anticipate and ameliorate potential public and regulatory backlash against job losses.

Conclusion

There is an old saying in Silicon Valley that one should not mistake a clear point of view for a short distance. The revolutionary potential of this one is obvious. However, we are still far from the widespread adoption needed to realize its benefits.

However, don’t mistake a far distance for an unattainable goal. As a close observer, I am enthusiastic and surprised by the advancements in autonomous vehicle technology. Major developers like Waymo, GM Cruise, nuTonomy and others are already racing to build self-driving cars faster than many thought possible just a few years ago.

However, industrialization is a marathon, not a sprint. There are many obstacles to overcome along the way. The challenges of doing so are significant, perhaps greater than many current players and their investors perceive and are prepared to deal with. This may require new strategies. There may also be a shakeout.

This is the role of innovation and market disruption. This is why most competitors fail, while those who succeed are rewarded handsomely. Who thought a mobile phone manufacturer or a search engine company could be worth a trillion dollars? Is it really crazy to believe, as I do now, that self-driving cars will be worth trillions of dollars?

[Source: NetEase Technology]