Dialogue with Guo Yuhang: There is a listed company chairman who is allocating money in units of 100 million | hyperslot88, data pengeluaran macau toto

Guo Yuhang, who Xinhua News Agency calls "a person who likes to mess around with things," is currently busy with Dianrong.com. In the past two years, he has appeared more as "Chairman of Xinghe Capital", focusing on entrepreneurship and investment in the field of financial technology.

Everyone in the industry knows that Guo Yuhang is a research-based entrepreneur who maintains good communication with regulators and represents the industry benchmark in a certain sense.

In this conversation, he talked about everything from investment trends in the next few years to trends in the financial technology field; from the Dianrong crisis to investment returns. Of course, it’s more about what he sees, hears, and thinks in the blockchain field, and even his predictions on currency prices...

Talk about financial technology: licensing and regulation are the key

Feng Jun: The government work report proposed an expected GDP growth target of 6%-6.5% in 2019. From the perspective of investment institutions, what structural trends do you think there will be in 2019? Which tracks are worthy of layout?

Guo Yuhang: From an investment perspective, I think there are still two principles. Follow some industries that are anti-cyclical and have weak policy sensitivity, such as big health, technology, and consumption. Everyone is turning in this direction. At present, the entire environment is becoming more and more sensitive to policies, and economic uncertainty is growing. Everyone generally has a cautious attitude. Those who have money will not invest, let alone those who have no money.

Also, closely following the government’s industrial policies is also the trend in the next three to five years.

Feng Jun: StarHe Capital has always focused on the financial technology field, but the country attaches great importance to financial risks. So what changes have occurred in the financial technology field?

Guo Yuhang: I think there are several changes in the financial technology field. Since 2016, the changes have become more and more obvious. The development direction that is truly dominated by the two keywords of technology and innovation is coming to an end. It is more about licensing and regulation. By 2018, these two changes have been determined. In the next three to five years, the two keywords of licensing and regulation will remain mainstream.

In financial technology, P2P, crowdfunding, including previous loan assistance to banks, whether it is financial technology or technology finance, basically non-licensed institutions have less and less room for innovation in the field of financial technology.

Feng Jun: What do you think the next trend of P2P supervision will be?

Guo Yuhang: Be conservative + steady. The current supervision will be more conservative and risk-preventive than before 2016. Therefore, in terms of the cycle of innovation and entrepreneurship, the shift from encouraging innovation to tolerating risks is relatively obvious. From a regulatory perspective, it will downplay the concept of innovation and place more emphasis on risks. Taking P2P as an example, the phenomenon of thousands of new startups may be gone forever. But in the end, the remaining hundreds of leading companies will carve up huge market shares. There are still plenty of opportunities here.

Feng Jun: In fact, a trend that everyone has observed is that technology companies such as JD.com were de-financializing last year.

Guo Yuhang: I personally still think that it is a good attempt for technology companies to cross-border into finance, but it has some natural flaws. For example, technology companies have not experienced the financial risk cycle after entering the financial industry. There are also flaws in talent reserves, genes and other aspects. Therefore, once supervision turns to risk control, technology companies immediately lose their room for maneuver and tolerance for mistakes. Therefore, technology companies can only do the bestBecome a loan sponsor for financial institutions and participate in finance through technology empowerment instead of finance becoming the dominant one.

Feng Jun: Specific to you, from Dianrong.com to Xinghe Capital, from P2P to blockchain, can you talk about what kind of transformation this is?

Guo Yuhang: The new regulations on the management of online loans issued in January this year (Note: "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Classifying Disposal and Risk Prevention of Online Lending Institutions" referred to as "Document No. 175") have already laid out the entire framework for future development. The biggest charm of entrepreneurship is uncertainty, from 0 to 1; when you confirm this 1, add a few 0 questions after it. For entrepreneurs, it is nothing more than a norm and a smooth transition to a process led by professional managers. The space for innovation and uncertainty are getting smaller and smaller. Therefore, investment is a way to participate in innovation, so I started StarHe Capital in 2016. I made my second financial technology fund in 2017 and I am considering launching a third one this year. But it may be slightly enlarged to technology empowering finance, consumption, health, etc. We will still use technology as the theme to explore new opportunities outside of the financial field.

Feng Jun: Is Dianrong currently in crisis?

Guo Yuhang: Compared with the best of times, Dianrong has a lot to pay attention to now. We have been relatively smooth before, and the expectations from the outside world are also relatively high. Before 2016, we were still very stable and felt like we were walking on thin ice. After 2016, we have become relatively mature, but our expansion rate is still too aggressive. We have many businesses that are not profitable but have good prospects. We focus on being ahead of the curve. This kind of advancement is a burden in a severe market situation.

When we review the past two years, there are still many times worth reflecting on. Don't overly imagine things that haven't happened, focus on the present very pragmatically, and be prepared to fight a protracted war. Dianrong didn’t have no money, but it took longer than expected to cash out.

Talk about blockchain investment: The barbarity of the industry is beyond my expectation

Feng Jun: How did you become interested in blockchain? Do you have any story?

Guo Yuhang: I started paying attention to Bitcoin in 2014. In 2015, Dianrong.com had an independent blockchain team. At that time, we were one of the first institutions to join IBM Fabric. In terms of alliance chains, we have also launched our own BaaS system and have received orders from some industries. This is what we were doing in 2016 and 2017, and it has nothing to do with currency issuance.

Feng Jun: I reviewed Xinghe Capital over the past year and found that you still put more energy into the blockchain field. Did "94" in 2017 also have a certain impact on you?

Guo Yuhang: Yes, it has a certain influence. It is undeniable that when we did it before, we had not thought that blockchain could play like this. I also participated in transactional opportunities to a moderate extent, but in the end I returned to my roots. Therefore, every time you see a bubble coming, it is actually an accelerated process of market education. After returning to normalcy, you will come back to do practical things.

Our own conclusion is that we should follow the trend, participate moderately when there are trading opportunities, and maintain contact with the market. We will not definitely say whether we are in the currency circle or the chain circle.

In this process, from an institutional perspective, obtaining returns is the constant priority. When the market turns from weak to cold, and after such a 180-degree turn, an independent judgment must be maintained to determine whether it is changing from a speculative opportunity to an investment opportunity, or from a short-term opportunity to a long-term layout. We are still relatively determinedI believe in the future of blockchain and do not insist on saying that if I give up the transactional opportunity, I will give up this industry. We are not such a short-sighted organization.

Feng Jun: Could you please tell me about the returns you have received in terms of trading opportunities?

Guo Yuhang: The first time I invested in a token-related project was around August 2017, or before 1994. The first project had a return of almost 80 times. The subsequent projects I participated in were basically investments made after the project was converted into eth. Up to now, some projects have not been withdrawn, and their market value has dropped a lot, but they are basically playing with the project profits. I didn’t use the financial technology funds I managed to do it. It was all my personal money, because at that time, there was no way to judge compliance and returns.

Feng Jun: So how do you judge the timing of this kind of trading opportunity?

Guo Yuhang: In fact, it is still relatively lagging behind. We participated in August 2017. After the New Year, the market became colder. By June, we basically started to shrink. We will no longer invest in projects after August 2018, basically keeping pace with the pace of the entire industry.

Feng Jun: What factors or market changes do you base your judgment on?

Guo Yuhang: First, there are more and more things that violate investment logic in the investment process. For example, no agreement is provided. There was an exchange at that time, and we had a good negotiation. Then we asked to submit materials and agreements based on the logic of equity investment, and it refused directly. Very incredible. From an investment perspective, this is a basic, something that needs to be offered. It says no, you either accept it or you don't have to vote.

The second is to discover that the team we once thought was good began to have some abnormal performance. Coupled with the exchange ecology, I think it is unhealthy, such as currency listing fees, frequent changes in rules, etc.

Under these conditions, we are very cautious. In particular, exchange ecological issues will cause your withdrawal, which is a very big challenge. We just felt that this matter should not be played like this.

Feng Jun: This year has been full of ups and downs, from chaos to silence and cold winter. Have you had any reflections?

Guo Yuhang: One of the reflections is that our system’s predictability still needs to be strengthened when the next wave of new opportunities arises, and how to provide early warning when the entire industry is going crazy. Relatively speaking, we are now in sync with the pace of the industry, neither too slow nor too fast. But we hope to strengthen the depth of understanding of new things, especially the team’s ability to think independently. In the investment process, it is undeniable that the founder or leader of an investment institution, his judgment and tendency will become the soul of the entire investment institution.

At the same time, we know that investment logic is important, but we did not insist on it during the hustle and bustle. There are still some projects that violate investment logic. There will be opportunities like this in the future. We believe this experience will be of great help to the team’s summary and future judgment.

Feng Jun: Are some of the things happening in the blockchain industry beyond your expectations?

Guo Yuhang: The barbarism of the entire industry is beyond my expectation. The so-called big guys and celebrities in this industry, if we look closely at his entire journey, we think he still grabbed it too quickly. It can be said that the bottom line of many people in the industry is lower than we imagine. This was something that was hard to imagine when we were doing investments before. In the classical investment circle, a well-known investor, even if he has some moral flaws and experiences, has a basic bottom line.There are still some, and everyone still plays within a circle of rules.

However, in last year’s blockchain investment, whether it was the so-called leading institutions or individuals, the quality of the group they ultimately presented was far lower than that of the equity investment industry. From this perspective, it was a bit beyond my expectations. Later, when I delved deeper and talked with industry veterans, I found out that this industry used to be a very difficult industry, or it was also a very low industry, but the sudden wealth effect covered up many of their problems. We still need to do a more comprehensive review ourselves.

Feng Jun: If you review it, what are the similarities and differences between blockchain investment and traditional equity investment?

Guo Yuhang: I think the logic is consistent. Everything that went against logic before, when you are blinded by the bubble, you will feel that this is a unique characteristic of the industry. But in fact, the current conclusion is that it goes against common sense. Therefore, we still need to return to rationality and common sense.

Feng Jun: Xinghe Capital has invested in approximately 40 blockchain projects. What attitude will we take to invest in blockchain in the future?

Guo Yuhang: We are still looking at investment in blockchain, and have not completely put the brakes on it. We basically focus on equity investment, and we basically no longer invest in pure currency projects. Basically, we still focus on the feasibility of integrating it with industry. We will first ask him a question, can you survive without issuing coins? If tokens are indeed indispensable in its business model, we will not reject it, but those pure currency projects will basically be abandoned.

Talk about asset allocation: Some people are allocating Bitcoin in units of 100 million yuan

Feng Jun: The global economy has entered a new cycle, and the equity investment market has basically been a bear market since last year. What do you think about digital currency investing?

Guo Yuhang: In the real currency circle, I am relatively cautious in supporting this great social experiment of Bitcoin. I won’t take too much money to participate, and now I only hold Bitcoin. But I still firmly believe that this experiment will eventually prove to be successful. Therefore, I will cautiously increase my holdings, but I will also make such a personal attempt within the risk range that I can fully bear the risk of returning to zero. At present, institutional funds will not be used to chase the rise and kill the fall. We will also pay close attention to the outstanding talents in the traditional secondary market and the way and rhythm they enter the industry.

From an optimistic perspective, cryptocurrencies and crypto-assets will become mainstream asset allocation methods; from a cautious perspective, they will at least become an important option in allocation methods.

Feng Jun: What do you recommend for personal crypto asset allocation?

Guo Yuhang: It is not recommended for people with low and middle incomes to take risks. High-net-worth individuals are relatively confused when it comes to choosing asset classes. On the premise that they cannot invest in real estate, they can make a few attempts at cash assets as low as 10%. According to your risk preference, set an investment ratio between 1% and 10%. You can consider it, but we do not make investment recommendations.

Feng Jun: When will the next round of blockchain investment opportunities come in?

Guo Yuhang: Maybe two years later

Feng Jun: So what is your prediction for the currency price?

Guo Yuhang: Currently, holding Bitcoin is almost the only choice for new entrants into this industry. What I am optimistic about is that the next wave of people holding Bitcoin will increase by orders of magnitude. For example, from 10 million to 50 million, or even 100 million. In the process of taking off in this order of magnitude, there will be a wave of demographic dividend.

Feng Jun: At present, what is the attitude of traditional investment institutions towards digital currencies?

Guo Yuhang: Pay a lot of attention. Whether it is family funds, traditional equity funds, or alternative asset allocation funds, they all pay close attention to Bitcoin. Around me, for example, the chairman of some listed companies allocates Bitcoin in units of 100 million yuan. Some people around me who are engaged in the mutual financial industry are more or less considering or have already participated in Bitcoin investment. Bitcoin trading itself is also legal in China. If we consider the demographic dividend under this situation, there is an opportunity.

Feng Jun: I started running in 2017, but now I have slowed down and am a little cautious. So what are the restrictions on their entry channels or methods?

Guo Yuhang: It is still the uncertainty of government policies that makes large-scale allocation unlikely. The exchange is gone, and OTC trading is subject to strict anti-money laundering supervision by banks, making it much less convenient. But there are still opportunities to participate in a small amount. As long as you do not participate with the intention of circumventing the law, I think as an alternative asset allocation, there are still a large number of people ready to participate.

Talk about blockchain entrepreneurship: returning to the essence of technology

Feng Jun: What form will the next wave of blockchain technology, or blockchain 3.0, take?

Guo Yuhang: A large number of government-led, industry-led, 2B-side applications that are more practical and solve specific problems will have a large number of experimental cases. I believe that there will be some revolutionary and demonstration cases, which will become standard equipment and rapidly popularize in some industries.

This is at least a two-year experiment, which is a return to the essence of technology solving practical problems. No more virtual and financial hype. Whether it is the policy environment, industry entrepreneurs, or investment institutions, they will all return to this logic. It is to solve practical problems in subdivided industries and pay attention to the maturity and perfection of technology. Everyone knows that blockchain technology is not perfect, and everyone will solve the transaction frequency, security, and authorization mechanism of big data combined with privacy of TPS. For another example, in terms of industry implementation, one big public chain used to solve all problems. Now more attention is paid to the initial design of public chains, which are customized for a segmented industry and more focused on solving practical problems. This is already a quite obvious trend.

Feng Jun: 2B-side applications and integration with industries may be opportunities for large enterprises. For ordinary entrepreneurs, from the perspective of 0 to 1, what kind of opportunities are there?

Guo Yuhang: The next two years will not be the best time. For a team from 0 to 1, equity financing will be very difficult at first, and other financing methods have reached a bottleneck. Unless it is a project with a special star, such as a project with a huge halo such as Yao Ban and Yao Qizhi, there is a chance. It is difficult for an ordinary team to start a business from 0 to 1, requiring more than 10 times the effort.

Feng Jun: What do you think of the relationship between blockchain and policy?

Guo Yuhang: There are still short-term arbitrage opportunities around the world. There are still certain opportunities for regulatory arbitrage between large countries, small countries, and regions, but this range will become smaller and smaller. Global regulatory policies will gradually converge, including the securities attributes and investment protection of financing activities combined with blockchain, and the strict tracing of obvious fraud, and a clear global consensus will be formed.

Feng Jun: So what opportunities does China have in blockchain?

Guo Yuhang: China can only wait and see conservatively in this regard, and it is difficult to become the leader of policy breakthroughs in this regard. Because it is related to China's current overall financial regulatory environment. Entrepreneurs want to start in ChinaIt will not be possible in the short term if big policies come to the fore.

Feng Jun: Due to the strong regulatory nature of blockchain finance, will it lose some imagination?

Guo Yuhang: From the perspective of risk prevention, this is an inevitable choice. When it is difficult for supervision to accurately grasp the risk boundaries of new things, it would rather kill the wrong ones than let them go. It is true that there is little room for imagination, but our country is too big and there are always people involved. The financial activities of the stakeholders will not have much impact in the short term.

Feng Jun: Will you personally still advocate for the blockchain?

Guo Yuhang: Yes, we are always optimistic about technology solving practical problems. As for the opportunities in the short term, it remains to be seen.

Feng Jun: Could you say a few words to blockchain entrepreneurs, such as what stage they are at now, what new opportunities there are, or give them some encouragement.

Guo Yuhang: For entrepreneurs in the blockchain industry, they must stay away from its financial attributes and try to focus on solving practical problems. In two aspects, improve efficiency and reduce costs. As for the role in the subdivided industry, if you cannot do these two things, try not to try it. Don't place your hope on the opportunity of getting rich related to finance. It is easy to get yourself involved and stay away from finance.

(Source: Blockchain plus)